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Bom pra aumentar o vocabulario sobre economia. Boa leitura.

 

 

Brazil takes off

Now the risk for Latin America’s big success story is hubris

Nov 12th 2009 | From The Economist print edition

 

WHEN, back in 2001, economists at Goldman Sachs bracketed Brazil with Russia, India and China as the economies that would come to dominate the world, there was much sniping about the B in the BRIC acronym. Brazil? A country with a growth rate as skimpy as its swimsuits, prey to any financial crisis that was around, a place of chronic political instability, whose infinite capacity to squander its obvious potential was as legendary as its talent for football and carnivals, did not seem to belong with those emerging titans.

 

Now that scepticism looks misplaced. China may be leading the world economy out of recession but Brazil is also on a roll. It did not avoid the downturn, but was among the last in and the first out. Its economy is growing again at an annualised rate of 5%. It should pick up more speed over the next few years as big new deep-sea oilfields come on stream, and as Asian countries still hunger for food and minerals from Brazil’s vast and bountiful land. Forecasts vary, but sometime in the decade after 2014—rather sooner than Goldman Sachs envisaged—Brazil is likely to become the world’s fifth-largest economy, overtaking Britain and France. By 2025 São Paulo will be its fifth-wealthiest city, according to PwC, a consultancy.

 

And, in some ways, Brazil outclasses the other BRICs. Unlike China, it is a democracy. Unlike India, it has no insurgents, no ethnic and religious conflicts nor hostile neighbours. Unlike Russia, it exports more than oil and arms, and treats foreign investors with respect. Under the presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former trade-union leader born in poverty, its government has moved to reduce the searing inequalities that have long disfigured it. Indeed, when it comes to smart social policy and boosting consumption at home, the developing world has much more to learn from Brazil than from China. In short, Brazil suddenly seems to have made an entrance onto the world stage. Its arrival was symbolically marked last month by the award of the 2016 Olympics to Rio de Janeiro; two years earlier, Brazil will host football’s World Cup.

 

At last, economic sense

In fact, Brazil’s emergence has been steady, not sudden. The first steps were taken in the 1990s when, having exhausted all other options, it settled on a sensible set of economic policies. Inflation was tamed, and spendthrift local and federal governments were required by law to rein in their debts. The Central Bank was granted autonomy, charged with keeping inflation low and ensuring that banks eschew the adventurism that has damaged Britain and America. The economy was thrown open to foreign trade and investment, and many state industries were privatised.

 

All this helped spawn a troupe of new and ambitious Brazilian multinationals (see ourspecial report). Some are formerly state-owned companies that are flourishing as a result of being allowed to operate at arm’s length from the government. That goes for the national oil company, Petrobras, for Vale, a mining giant, and Embraer, an aircraft-maker. Others are private firms, like Gerdau, a steelmaker, or JBS, soon to be the world’s biggest meat producer. Below them stands a new cohort of nimble entrepreneurs, battle-hardened by that bad old past. Foreign investment is pouring in, attracted by a market boosted by falling poverty and a swelling lower-middle class. The country has established some strong political institutions. A free and vigorous press uncovers corruption—though there is plenty of it, and it mostly goes unpunished.

 

Just as it would be a mistake to underestimate the new Brazil, so it would be to gloss over its weaknesses. Some of these are depressingly familiar. Government spending is growing faster than the economy as a whole, but both private and public sectors still invest too little, planting a question-mark over those rosy growth forecasts. Too much public money is going on the wrong things. The federal government’s payroll has increased by 13% since September 2008. Social-security and pension spending rose by 7% over the same period although the population is relatively young. Despite recent improvements, education and infrastructure still lag behind China’s or South Korea’s (as a big power cut this week reminded Brazilians). In some parts of Brazil, violent crime is still rampant.

 

National champions and national handicaps

There are new problems on the horizon, just beyond those oil platforms offshore. The real has gained almost 50% against the dollar since early December. That boosts Brazilians’ living standards by making imports cheaper. But it makes life hard for exporters. The government last month imposed a tax on short-term capital inflows. But that is unlikely to stop the currency’s appreciation, especially once the oil starts pumping.

 

Lula’s instinctive response to this dilemma is industrial policy. The government will require oil-industry supplies—from pipes to ships—to be produced locally. It is bossing Vale into building a big new steelworks. It is true that public policy helped to create Brazil’s industrial base. But privatisation and openness whipped this into shape. Meanwhile, the government is doing nothing to dismantle many of the obstacles to doing business—notably the baroque rules on everything from paying taxes to employing people. Dilma Rousseff, Lula’s candidate in next October’s presidential election, insists that no reform of the archaic labour law is needed (see article).

 

And perhaps that is the biggest danger facing Brazil: hubris. Lula is right to say that his country deserves respect, just as he deserves much of the adulation he enjoys. But he has also been a lucky president, reaping the rewards of the commodity boom and operating from the solid platform for growth erected by his predecessor, Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Maintaining Brazil’s improved performance in a world suffering harder times means that Lula’s successor will have to tackle some of the problems that he has felt able to ignore. So the outcome of the election may determine the speed with which Brazil advances in the post-Lula era. Nevertheless, the country’s course seems to be set. Its take-off is all the more admirable because it has been achieved through reform and democratic consensus-building. If only China could say the same.

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Sobre as nossas florestas, publicado no San Francisco Chronicle

 

 

Amazon Deforestation Jumps Sixfold as Soy Output Expands

 

 

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

 

 

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/05/17/bloomberg1376-LLE9831A1I4H01-3DT424P5RJAOFRGAC3VQHK0GIO.DTL#ixzz1NHHMa3th

 

 

May 18 (Bloomberg) -- Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon jumped almost sixfold in the March-April period, led by the destruction of trees in Mato Grosso, the country's biggest soybean-producing state.

 

Deforestation in the world's largest rain forest increased in March and April to 593 square kilometers (147,000 acres), about the size of Toronto, from 103.5 square kilometers in the same period last year, the National Institute for Space Research said in statement posted on its website today. The institute uses data from its Real Time Deforestation Detection System, known as Deter, according to the statement. In January and February, 19.2 square kilometers of forest were destroyed.

 

Latin America's biggest economy will increase soy output by 7.2 percent this year to 73.7 million tons, the Agriculture Ministry said this month. Mato Grosso, which produced 27 percent of Brazil's last soybean harvest, will boost production 8.8 percent to 20.4 million tons, according to ministry figures.

 

Erai Scheffer, president of Grupo Bom Futuro, Brazil's largest soybean producer, said he is expecting a record crop this season as rains boost yields to the highest in three years.

 

Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva approved a decree in December for Brazil to reduce its greenhouse-gas emissions by as much as 1.3 billion tons in 2020. The decree includes measures to reduce deforestation by 80 percent in the Amazon and the planting of 3 million hectares of trees, Brazil's Secretariat for Social Communication said.

 

The decree carries out a pledge Brazil made at a climate change summit in Copenhagen in 2009 to voluntarily reduce emissions by 36 percent to 39 percent by 2020 compared with "business-as-usual" levels.

 

Tropical forests are disappearing at a rate of about 13 million hectares (32 million acres) each year, or an area the size of Greece, according to a UN Environment Program report published May 6.

 

--Editors: Richard Jarvie, Bill Faries

 

 

 

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/05/17/bloomberg1376-LLE9831A1I4H01-3DT424P5RJAOFRGAC3VQHK0GIO.DTL#ixzz1NHHD5paW

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Mais um artigo relacionado ao assunto do post anterior mas publicado na BBC. em http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-13449792

 

Um detalhe eh q mais pra baixo no texto aparece um Chamber of Deputies - q se refere a Camara dos Deputados. Acontece q Chamber of Deputies eh uma traducao literal errada. Deputy em ingles eh um substituto em caso de ausencia, como o vice presidente por exemplo, que representara o presidente quando este estiver ausente. Os nossos Deputados, que representam o povo e votam as leis, sao chamados nos EUA de Representatives, podendo ser Federal ou State Representatives (Deputados federais e estaduais), e a casa onde eles trabalham se chama House of Representatives - sendo portanto esse o equivalente em ingles da nossa Camara dos Deputados. Acabei de enviar o comentario para a BBC, vamos ver se eles vao mudar.

 

Boa leitura

 

Brazil: Amazon rainforest deforestation rises sharply

 

Deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest has increased almost sixfold, new data suggests.

 

Satellite images show deforestation increased from 103 sq km in March and April 2010 to 593 sq km (229 sq miles) in the same period of 2011, Brazil's space research institute says.

 

Much of the destruction has been in Mato Grosso state, the centre of soya farming in Brazil.

 

The news comes shortly before a vote on new forest protection rules.

 

Brazilian Environment Minister Izabella Teixeira said the figures were "alarming" and announced the setting up of a "crisis cabinet" in response to the news.

 

"Our objective is to reduce deforestation by July," the minister told a news conference.

 

Analysts say the new figures have taken the government by surprise.

 

Last December, a government report said deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon had fallen to its lowest rate for 22 years.

 

However, the latest data shows a 27% jump in deforestation from August 2010 to April 2011.

 

The biggest rise was in Mato Grosso, which produces more than a quarter of Brazil's soybean harvest.

 

Some environmentalists argue that rising demand for soy and cattle is prompting farmers to clear more of their land.

 

But others see a direct link between the jump in deforestation and months of debate over easing an existing law on forest protection.

 

"You have 300-400 lawmakers here in Brasilia sending the message that profiting from deforestation will be amnestied, that crime pays," Marcio Astrini from Greenpeace told Reuters.

 

"The only relevant factor is the Forest Code. It is a gigantic rise."

 

The Chamber of Deputies has delayed voting on the Forest Code amid at times acrimonious argument but could consider the issue again next week.

 

The Forest Code, enacted in 1934 and subsequently amended in 1965, sets out how much of his land a farmer can deforest.

 

Regulations currently require that 80% of a landholding in the Amazon remain forest, 20% in other areas.

 

Proponents of change say the law impedes economic development and contend that Brazil must open more land for agriculture.

 

However, opponents fear that in their current form some of the proposed changes might give farmers a form of amnesty for deforested land.

 

The changes were put forward by Aldo Rebelo, leader of Brazil's Communist Party (PCdoB) and backed by a group in Congress known as the "ruralists" who want Brazil to develop its agribusiness sector.

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Texto publicado na Scientific American em - http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=portugal-drug-decriminalization

 

 

5 Years After: Portugal's Drug Decriminalization Policy Shows Positive Results

 

Street drugrelated deaths from overdoses drop and the rate of HIV cases crashes

By Brian Vastag | April 7, 2009

 

In the face of a growing number of deaths and cases of HIV linked to drug abuse, the Portuguese government in 2001 tried a new tack to get a handle on the problem—it decriminalized the use and possession of heroin, cocaine, marijuana, LSD and other illicit street drugs. The theory: focusing on treatment and prevention instead of jailing users would decrease the number of deaths and infections.

 

Five years later, the number of deaths from street drug overdoses dropped from around 400 to 290 annually, and the number of new HIV cases caused by using dirty needles to inject heroin, cocaine and other illegal substances plummeted from nearly 1,400 in 2000 to about 400 in 2006, according to a report released recently by the Cato Institute, a Washington, D.C, libertarian think tank.

 

"Now instead of being put into prison, addicts are going to treatment centers and they're learning how to control their drug usage or getting off drugs entirely," report author Glenn Greenwald, a former New York State constitutional litigator, said during a press briefing at Cato last week.

 

Under the Portuguese plan, penalties for people caught dealing and trafficking drugs are unchanged; dealers are still jailed and subjected to fines depending on the crime. But people caught using or possessing small amounts—defined as the amount needed for 10 days of personal use—are brought before what's known as a "Dissuasion Commission," an administrative body created by the 2001 law.

 

Each three-person commission includes at least one lawyer or judge and one health care or social services worker. The panel has the option of recommending treatment, a small fine, or no sanction.

 

Peter Reuter, a criminologist at the University of Maryland, College Park, says he's skeptical decriminalization was the sole reason drug use slid in Portugal, noting that another factor, especially among teens, was a global decline in marijuana use. By the same token, he notes that critics were wrong in their warnings that decriminalizing drugs would make Lisbon a drug mecca.

 

"Drug decriminalization did reach its primary goal in Portugal," of reducing the health consequences of drug use, he says, "and did not lead to Lisbon becoming a drug tourist destination."

 

Walter Kemp, a spokesperson for the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, says decriminalization in Portugal "appears to be working." He adds that his office is putting more emphasis on improving health outcomes, such as reducing needle-borne infections, but that it does not explicitly support decriminalization, "because it smacks of legalization."

 

Drug legalization removes all criminal penalties for producing, selling and using drugs; no country has tried it. In contrast, decriminalization, as practiced in Portugal, eliminates jail time for drug users but maintains criminal penalties for dealers. Spain and Italy have also decriminalized personal use of drugs and Mexico's president has proposed doing the same. .

 

A spokesperson for the White House's Office of National Drug Control Policy declined to comment, citing the pending Senate confirmation of the office's new director, former Seattle Police Chief Gil Kerlikowske. The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and the U.S. Department of State's Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs also declined to comment on the report.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/9677495

 

 

Another rural activist killed in Amazon region

 

AP foreign, Friday June 3 2011

 

JULIANA BARBASSA

 

Associated Press= RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Another rural activist was found shot to death in the Amazon on Thursday, just three days after Brazil's leaders discussed how to stop the region's deadly disputes over logging and protect those whose lives are threatened.

 

Police in Eldorado dos Carajas, a town in Para state, said the slaying bore the characteristics of an execution, but gave no further details. The victim was identified only by his first name, Marcos.

 

Two witnesses initially tried to take the wounded activist to a hospital, but were stopped en route by gunmen in another car who got out and finished off the victim, the police chief of southeastern Para, Alberto Teixeira, told Globo TV's G1 website.

 

The Catholic Land Pastoral, a watchdog group, says more than 1,150 rural activists have been slain in Brazil over the past 20 years. The killings are mostly carried out by gunmen hired by loggers, ranchers and farmers to silence protests over illegal logging and land rights in the environmentally sensitive region. The group also has a list of 125 activists whose lives are in danger because of their opposition to loggers.

 

Last week, three activists were shot to death, along with a witness to a killing.

 

Rubber tapper Jose Claudio Ribeiro da Silva and his wife, Maria, were ambushed by gunmen in the same forested region where Thursday's killing took place. The Silvas led a reserve where farmers used the land in a sustainable manner and had denounced illegal logging for years.

 

Adelino Ramos was shot six times while taking produce to sell at a market with his wife and children. He died Friday. Ramos had long called for land reform and turned in those who destroyed the jungle in the Amazon state of Rondonia, which borders Bolivia.

 

Thursday's slaying happened in the landless peasant settlement where 19 people were killed and 69 wounded in a clash with police in 1996. The policemen involved were acquitted and the date is marked by activists as a reminder of the impunity to which these murders are relegated in Brazil.

 

Presidential secretary Gilberto Carvalho told the state-run news agency Agencia Brasil on Thursday that the national government will act strongly against the bloodshed.

 

"We've taken a series of measures to contain the violence in the region, but it seems we'll have to take more decisive action," he said before going into a previously scheduled meeting with the president of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, and the governors of the states of Para, Rondonia and Amazonas to discuss this issues.

 

The justice minister, Jose Eduardo Cardozo, said the armed forces, national guard, federal police and highway police will all lend support to state police departments in their effort to stop the killings in Brazil's forested north.

 

On Monday, Brazilian Vice President Michel Temer led a meeting with the ministers of environment, justice, rural development and human rights to discuss how to halt the killings.

 

They announced the creation of a working group on Amazon violence, though no details were given about how the government intended to increase policing in the region or how many new officers would be sent.

 

On Tuesday, the minister of human rights, Maria do Rosario Nunes, said the government doesn't have the resources to provide protection for all those who suffer threats because of their political activism, saying that it is a long list.

 

Federal prosecutors acknowledge the vast majority of killings in the Amazon go unpunished. There is little government presence in the vast region and local governments are easily swayed by powerful loggers, ranchers and farmers who profit from illegally clearing forest.

 

Fewer than 100 cases have gone to court since 1988, according to the Catholic Land Pastoral. About 80 of the hired gunmen have been convicted. Fifteen of the men who hired them were found guilty. Only one is in prison today — the man found guilty of ordering the 2005 murder of the U.S. nun Dorothy Stang.

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20110608/wl_time/08599207571700

 

aparentemente publicado na revista time.

 

Let Them In: How Brazilians Could Help the U.S. Economy

 

By TIM ROGERS – Wed Jun 8, 1:30 am ET

 

Everyone should love Brazilian tourists. They spend more per capita than any other nationality. Worldwide, Brazilian tourists shell out an average of $43.3 million a day, dropping a gigantesco $1.4 billion last April alone, up 83% from the same period last year, according to the Brazil's Central Bank. In 2010, 1.2 million Brazilians visited the United States, injecting $5.9 billion into the U.S. economy. Even exclusive ski resorts in Vermont are scrambling to hire Portuguese-speaking ski instructors to meet the unexpected and rapidly growing demand from thousands of adventurous Brazilians who want to samba down the slopes. "Brazil is our fastest growing international market - up 20% from last season," says Chris Belanger of Stowe Mountain Resort.

 

Not that the U.S. has made it particularly easy for os turistas brasileiros to visit. Instead of rolling out the red carpet for the travelers from the increasingly wealthy South American nations, the U.S. makes Brazilians - and every other Latin American nationality - undergo a lengthy and expensive visa-application process that takes months of planning and can cost thousands of dollars in travel, lodging, food and other expenses - all before leaving the country. (See how an American company cultivated South America's favorite drink)

 

In all of Brazil, a country larger than the continental United States, the U.S. has only four consular offices: in the capital Brasilia, Recife, Rio de Janeiro and SÃo Paulo. That means a family living in Porto Alegre would have to spend hundreds of dollars on domestic airline tickets to fly everyone 700 miles to SÃo Paulo, then drop hundreds more on hotel rooms, food and taxis, just to get a visa application interview, which costs an additional $140 each.

 

While the State Department claims the average international wait time for a visa interview is 30 days, in Brazil it can be as high as 141 days, according to Steve Joyce of the U.S. Travel Association. That's not due to bureaucratic laziness. The overworked consular staff in SÃo Paulo is currently processing an average of 2,300 visas every day, more than any other U.S. consulate in the world. And they hope to nearly double their production level by next year to keep from falling farther behind. Brazil represents the fastest-growing non-immigrant visa demand in the world, up 234% over the past five years, eclipsing even China's 124% increase in U.S. visa issuances, according to the State Department.

 

Tourist industry officials say Brazil should be on the list of countries whose citizens do not need a visa to enter the U.S. There are currently 36 countries on Washington's visa waiver list, but none of them are in Latin America. Some argue it's hampering the U.S.' economic growth and global competitiveness. For example, Chilean tourism to the United States is down more than 30% from 10 years ago, while globally the number of Chileans traveling overseas to other countries is up 50%. Martha PantÍn, communications director for American Airlines, notes that many Latin American travelers have started connecting through other destinations since the U.S. suspended the Transfer Without a Visa program following 9/11. She says the Miami-based air carrier "strongly supports" the extension of visa waiver status to Argentina, Brazil and Chile and is "hopeful that this will occur in the very near future."(See pictures of depressing tourist destinations)

Indeed, the visa hurdles are at odds with a $200 million PR blitz led by the Corporation for Travel Promotion, a public-private partnership created by congressional law in 2010. While much of the campaign will target traditional markets in Canada and Europe - countries where people don't need a visa to travel to the U.S. - there will also be a new focus on emerging Latin American markets that already are playing an important role in the recovery of the country's $134 billion tourism industry.

 

The most lucrative target is Brazil, Latin America's largest economy. In the past, most Brazilians used to come to the United States looking for work; now they come to spend money and create jobs. The spending would help the U.S. economy tremendously. The American tourism market has recovered slowly since 9-11, but it missed out on a decade of growth, according to Roger Dow, president of the U.S. Travel Association. "We call it the lost decade. If we had just stayed on pace with the rest of the world, we would have generated $606 billion more dollars and have 467,000 more jobs right now," Dow said recently at the Pow Wow tourism trade show in San Francisco.

 

The good news, he says, is that the problem is still fixable, and has some inexpensive solutions. By just extending the visa-waiver program to Brazil and Chile, he says, the United States could double visits from those countries in one year and quickly generate $10.3 billion in new tourism revenue while creating 95,100 new American jobs. The Travel Association has also proposed a simple, four-point plan for "common sense entry reforms" that Dow says would create an estimated 1.3 million new jobs and bring in $858 billion into the U.S. economy by 2020. He insists the entry reforms, visa waivers and other "trusted traveler" initiatives would not compromise U.S. national security, rather streamline it and let Homeland Security "focus more on finding bad guys rather than harassing the good guys." "If you want to find needle in haystack, you shrink the haystack," Dow says. But, he adds, "If you treat every traveler as a terrorist, [security work] becomes very difficult."

Indeed, despite U.S. visa policies that treat all Latinos as immigrants vying for American jobs and their piece of the "American Dream," many are just tourists from down under have already achieved their own Brazilian or Chilean dreams and just want to visit the U.S. and spend their money here. So by not doing more to welcome them, it might just be Uncle Sam who is denying more Americans a better shot at living the dream themselves.

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